Five years ago, Emmanuel Macron, a political novice, won the French Presidency by a large margin over the extreme right-wing Marine Le Pen. This widely applauded political feat consisted in combining the moderate wing of the Socialist party, widely split during the Hollande Presidency, with the moderate wing of the Républican party into a “radical centrist” movement. In the ensuing parliamentary elections, Macron’s infant party “En Marche” won a decisive majority in the “Assemblée Nationale” the lower house of parliament and Macron formed his first government with political talent poached from both the socialists and the “Républicains”. This, Macron claimed, was in essence the centre ground of politics in which sensible politicians could develop sensible policies that infighting among the main political parties had prevented for too long. And that these policies would benefit a large majority of French voters. An idea that sounded a lot like Giscard d’Estaing’s theory that 2/3 of the French want to be governed from the centre and that he theorised in a book called “Démocratie Française” in 1976! The extremes of the left and the right would, the theory goes, be relegated to the fringes and the renewed centre encompass a large majority of voters.
Five years later, after the first round of the presidential election in which Macron is standing for a second term, it has become clear that all has not gone according to plan. Even though Macron increased his first-round score from 24% to 28%, Marine le Pen has increased hers by four percentage points too and, above all, Jean-Luc Mélenchon a former socialist, now much further the left, at the head of a party called “La France Insoumise” (that most Anglo-Saxon media translate as “Unbowed France”) has run a close third at 22%. Adding in the 7% of Eric Zemmour an upstart extreme right-wing polemicist and a few marginal figures on the hard right and the hard left, the extremist vote is now well over 50% of those who voted, with an abstention rate of 25%. Although Macron still has a good chance of winning a second term, the race will be tighter than it was in 2017, perhaps a lot tighter, and Marine le Pen has never been closer to becoming France’s next President.
The obvious conclusion that can be drawn from this picture is that Emmanuel Macron has not yet convinced a majority of the French that France is better off governed from the centre, or that he is the best person for the job, or both. In a country that is far more sensitive to the distribution of wealth than its creation, and where voters are quick to scapegoat either the “rich” or “immigrants” for their perceived predicament, Macron’s first move in 2017 to emasculate the wealth tax went down badly in many quarters and tarred him with the label of “president of the rich” that he has never been able to shake off. The “gilets jaunes” revolt, that started in the autumn of 2018, was sparked by a rise in fuel prices aimed to reduce carbon emissions but was considered grossly unfair by many people in rural areas who need one or two cars to get around. It morphed into a lasting revolt against the “Parisian elite” of which Macron, a former investment banker, was seen as the ultimate incarnation. During his five-year mandate, a number of cruel murders by Islamic terrorists of a priest, church worshippers and a schoolteacher have highlighted once again the dangers of radical Islam and the issue of security, that didn’t appear to be on Macron’s radar, and has drawn attention once again to the dire situation of some neighbourhoods around large cities in which Islamism is making increasing inroads.
As a result of Macron raiding the traditional parties of the right and the left for the talent necessary to help him govern, the parties concerned have seen their substance sucked out of them and have imploded. Valérie Pécresse of the Républicains, who looked initially as if she might be a decent match for Macron (see my previous post, “Let battle commence”) ran a lacklustre campaign and polled under 5% of the votes. Anne Hidalgo, mayor of Paris but carrying the banner of the Socialist Party, polled under 2%. And these are the two parties who, between them, governed France in various capacities from 1981 to 2017. This is more than just an electoral setback; it is the clearest indication yet that voters have abandoned them. Most commentators put this down to Macron, who has skilfully siphoned off their best talent. There is certainly a degree of truth in this, but it can also be argued that if the two main French parties had proved able to resolve their internal divisions, put French public finances on an even keel, reduce unemployment and generally help create greater prosperity for all, in an era of European integration and globalisation, they would not be in the dire situation they find themselves in now. It can even be argued that the French economy has never really recovered from Francois Mitterrand’s decision in 1981 to cut the retirement age from 65 to 60 at a stroke as well as the decision by the government of Lionel Jospin, a socialist disciple of Mitterrand and Prime Minister during the presidency of Jacques Chirac twenty years later, to introduce the 35-hour working week with no productivity strings attached but with massive subsidies to enable industry to adapt. Jacques Chirac, in power for 12 years, including five with a socialist Prime Minister, was singularly unable to do anything positive for the French economy. Neither the impulsive Nicholas Sarkozy, in power from 2007 to 2012, nor the hapless François Hollande in power from 2012 to 2017 were able to stop the rot in their respective parties and in the country. Seen against this background, the results on April 10th are simply the end game of a slow but steady decline that has been going on for years.
This decline in support for the traditional parties of government has been accompanied by the rise of protest figures like Eric Zemmour, who looked for a time as if he would take much of the protest vote from Marine Le Pen, until that is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed his obvious sympathies for Vladimir Putin and his autocratic regime. Ironically, Marine le Pen, while certainly not reneging on her anti- immigrant stance, has been able to pretend that she is less radical than Zemmour and wage a skilful and seemingly mainstream campaign focused on the bread-and-butter issue of cost of living, capitalising on the sharp increase in the prices of fuel and basic food stuffs. Both she and Mélenchon have promised a series of seemingly painless quick fixes of subsidies and handouts to alleviate the “pain and “anger” of those who consider themselves hard done by.
And yet there can be little doubt that over the past five years, gilets jaunes and COVID notwithstanding, Macron’s unglamorous but long overdue policies have put the French economy on a firmer footing for the first time in many years. Despite ballooning deficits, largely due to the “whatever it takes” policy during the pandemic, he has cut taxes for industry and consumers, unclogged the labour market, invested successfully in apprenticeships and vocational training schemes, made a start in reducing inbuilt inequalities in the public education system and started to bring down unemployment. France appears attractive once again for business investment and wealth creation both from inside and outside the country. Unfortunately for him, he is given little credit for this by voters, especially young voters who are seemingly put off by his sometimes aloof manner and more attracted to fiery diatribes from the likes of Mélenchon on the hard left or Marine le Pen on the hard right.
On the evening of April 24th, we shall find out whether a majority of voters is prepared to give Macron another five years to show that the economy can continue its revival and bring greater prosperity to a greater number or whether, on the contrary, they will blame him and others for their hardships, perceived and otherwise, and entrust the future of their country to an untested populist, a mini Ms. Trump, sympathetic to the Euro-sceptic views of Hungary’s Orban and Poland’s Law and Justice Party and onetime admirer of Vladimir Putin.
France’s immediate future as a respected power in Europe and the G7 and leader of a more forceful EU will depend on their verdict.
