There is little doubt in most peoples’ minds that Emmanuel Macron scored
a magnificent victory in last Sunday’s parliamentary elections. The mainstream
media have been falling over themselves to find every possible synonym for “triumph”.
“Macron sans opposition”, screamed a banner
headline in “Le Monde “. The FT
morning briefing on Monday was titled: ”Macron wins big”. The precise number of
seats in the Assemblée Nationale won
by candidates from his party, La République
en Marche (LREM) allied with François Bayrou’s party, Modem, will not be known until after the run-off votes next Sunday,
June 18. But it looks fairly certain that it will largely exceed 400 (out of
577), a very comfortable majority indeed.
Les Républicans, who have paid
the price for their divisions over strategy, will end up with around 100 seats and
the Parti Socialiste has been
pulverised. Those former members of the party who stood under the Macron banner
of LREM have come off well, whereas those that didn’t have faced intense
competition from the more radical left-wing rebel party, La France Insoumise (LFI) led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Many former
ministers and senior party officials have been ousted in the first round of voting,
submerged by the on-going shock waves unleashed on April 23. In his much lauded
rise to power, it has now become clear that Emmanuel Macron’s stroke of genius
was to see, before anyone else, that the traditional parties of the left and,
to a lesser extent, the right were so worn and torn that he just needed give
them a powerful shove at the right moment to see them keel over and collapse in
a heap.
Does all this mean that he will now have a free hand to reform the French
economy by pushing through the bold programme that he has promised the country?
In the light of the consummate political skills he has shown so far, he
may very well bring it off. But a few words
of caution are undoubtedly necessary.
The first point to make is that turnout on Sunday was a measly 50%, the
lowest for parliamentary elections since 1958. It suggests, among other things,
that voters basically followed the institutional logic of the fifth republic: most
of those who turned out considered that Macron should be given the
parliamentary majority he is seeking and voted, almost automatically, for the
candidates of his party, while many others felt that the outcome was a foregone
conclusion and that there was little point in turning out to vote for the
opposition. Either way, it does not amount
to a massive endorsement of his reform programme, at best an indication that voters
are willing to give him a chance to do what he has pledged do. Naturally
enough, little detail has yet been revealed, particularly on labour market
reform.
When such detail emerges, it is unlikely to be scrutinised by a freshly
elected lower house, largely populated by political novices with little or no
knowledge of parliamentary procedure. The government has made it clear that, in
order to expedite this first major reform initiative, it will simply ask parliament
to approve enabling legislation and proceed further through the equivalent of
executive orders (ordonnances). If this
procedure is followed, most of the detailed measures will be drafted by civil
servants and signed off by ministers, presumably with substantial input from
trades unions. Parliament’s role will be minimal. Even if objections to the
procedure are raised in the Senate, the membership of which has not been changed
in the slightest by Sunday’s elections, it can only propose amendments that
both the government and the lower house are constitutionally entitled to
ignore.
If there is any serious opposition to whatever measure are put forward, recent
history suggests that it will come only from the streets. In this respect, there
is an interesting parallel with the 1993 parliamentary elections, that gave a
similar, 472 seat, majority to a coalition of right-wing and centre parties.
The President of the time, François Mitterand, was obliged to appoint a right-wing
Prime Minister, the patrician Edouard Balladur, who interpreted his majority as
a green light for bold reforms designed to ..........reduce high youth unemployment!
His labour minister attempted to introduce what was called an “initial labour
contract” (contrat d’insertion
professionnelle), aimed at young, first-time job-seekers. Under the
proposals, they were to be offered a labour contract that employers could
terminate at their discretion within two years while paying only 80% of the
minimum wage. A wave of protests and street demonstrations by a united front of
unions, university and high-school students forced the government to withdraw
the proposals a few months later. Since then, two similar initiatives
have have been attempted by different governments and have met a similar fate
for similar reasons. The conclusion that must be drawn is that in France, the
size of a parliamentary majority is irrelevant in the face of a combined front
of unions and students that is visibly, vocally and sometimes violently opposed
to it. Nearly twenty-five years later, unemployment among young people is still
stubbornly high.
Emmanuel Macron and his government must be keenly aware of these
precedents and, one hopes, determined not to make the same mistakes again. At least one member of LREM must have had all this
in mind when he said (quoted by “le Monde”)
during a victory celebration on Sunday evening: “the risk is that if there is no
opposition in the Assemblée, it will
eventually be expressed in the streets!”
There is no doubting the political skills
that Emmanuel Macron has displayed in conquering and consolidating power. The next
big question is whether he will be able bring the same powers of persuasion to
bear on the exercise of power and overcome the many and varied forms of opposition
that will rise to challenge him. In summary, will he be able to do not only better,
but a lot better, than all the governments of the fifth republic since
the onset of the economic crisis at the beginning of the 1970s? We should know within a few months whether
this talented young President is able to extract a magic potion from a potentially
poisoned chalice.
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