….between Newhaven, Connecticut, and New York City. The pollsters will be the first to rejoice. Their central scenario for the
2017 presidential election, a contest between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen
in the second round of voting on May 7, has been vindicated, even if the gap
between them, just over 2%, in the first round of voting, is, if anything, wider
than predicted. They also seem to have been right about the last minute surge of
both François Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with Fillon edging into third
place.
French voters have therefore given themselves
a choice that is both clear and unprecedented. Clear inasmuch as the political
choices of Macron and Le Pen could not be further apart. For Macron, the vision
of an open and tolerant France within the European Union, setting out to put
its economic and financial house in order, in accordance with its commitments
under European treaties. For Le Pen, an inward-looking, xenophobic and
go-it-alone France, harking back to an imagined eldorado of many years past and
seeking to turn back the tide of history.
Unprecedented inasmuch as the next President,
whoever he or she is, will not come from one of the established political
parties that have governed France since 1958. Both candidates have deliberately turned
their back on the mainstream right and left-wing parties and sought to stake
out new political ground, astride both left and right for Macron or on the
extreme right for Le Pen. Whatever else happens or doesn’t happen, France is in
for a major realignment of its political parties and the shock waves from
today’s vote will be felt for many months and years to come, starting with
the parliamentary elections in June.
For now, it looks very much as if Macron
will win on May 7. The unfortunate candidate of the socialist party, Benoit
Hamon, has already endorsed Macron and more significantly, so has Fillon, as
well as many other members of the right-wing Républicains. Mélenchon has not endorsed
anyone, although counter-intuitively perhaps, some of his electorate might vote
for Le Pen. Two further factors could however have a big influence on the final outcome;
the first is abstention by voters who feel they have been deprived of a
choice and want neither Macron nor Le Pen as their President. But turnout in the
first round of voting was very similar to that of the first round of the 2012 election
and it’s hard to imagine massive abstention handing victory to Le Pen. In addition, pollsters
and media will certainly do their bit to warn of the possible consequences of
abstention in the two weeks before the final vote; the second is the likely
televised debate between the two finalists, that is probably being arranged as I write.
And, more frighteningly, a new terrorist
attack cannot be ruled out.
As I wrote in my post of April 7 (“Macron unplugged”)
I shall vote Macron on May 7. Beyond the closely argued analyses and media
chatter that we shall be treated to for the next two weeks however, today’s results
simply and ominously confirm that powerful forces of division are gnawing at the fabric of
French society. One can only hope that the next President will set out, first and foremost, to tame
them.
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