As
predicted in my last post, the public transport strike has turned into a battle
to influence public opinion between the government and France’s most militant
trade union, the CGT. Its secretary general, Philippe Martinez, declared over
the weekend that Emmanuel Macron has reached his “Thatcher moment”, meaning
presumably that he is determined to fatally weaken the power of trade unions to
oppose his reforms. In response, the secretary of state for transport has
accused the CGT of trying to bring the country to a standstill and intimidating
non-strikers. There is surely some truth in both assertions.
For all its
rhetoric, it is easy to forget that the CGT, although strong among train
drivers, has seen its influence erode for a number of reasons since the last big
public transport strike of 1995. Its former pride of place among unions has
been taken by the more reformist CFDT and its leader's stance is not always supported by
his own rank and file. It is also worth pointing out that union membership in
France in general is among the lowest in industrial countries and concentrated
in the sprawling public sector. The spread of the Internet has not only enabled many
people to work from home but has also facilitated last-minute on-line
reservations for car-pooling rides and trips on long distance coaches and buses
(largely liberalised by Emmanuel Macron himself when he was a minister under
François Hollande). “How come the trains are empty?” asked one seemingly surprised
anchor man on the evening news two days ago, as cameras panned slowly over half
empty carriages in high speed trains. The obvious answer seems to be quite simply
that many French employees and/or holiday makers have made alternative arrangements
to get where they want to go, to work, to join their families for Christmas or take
a holiday on the ski slopes. If the usually rapid and efficient trains are seen
as temporarily unreliable, they grumble a lot but are quick to find
alternatives. Driving of cars, scooters of all kinds, from near motorcycles to
electrically driven runabouts, bicycles and walking have increased massively as
a way of getting to and from work for instance, and by the time the Christmas
holidays end on January 6, strikers, and more importantly, the top managers of
the SNCF, will probably have drawn the conclusion that the much feared competition to
public sector trains and metros has already arrived. People have been able to
adapt and can no longer be stopped going about their business by strike action,
as was the case before the Internet era. Some strikers seem to have drawn such
a conclusion already and their number has fallen steadily over the past week or
so. And thanks to 4G enabled smart phones and mobile apps, it is now possible
to see which trains and metros are running and adjust travel plans accordingly.
In all likelihood, the strike will eventually peter out, despite desperate and
largely illegal action by CGT members to prevent trains running by physically
occupying their tracks or temporarily cutting power supplies to some areas.
The government,
it must be said, has also, played a skilful hand, even if its announced grand design of a “universal” pension system
had had to be sacrificed for political expediency, in application of the age-old
principle of divide and rule: the police force, the fire service, airline
pilots, stewards and stewardesses, fishermen and ballet dancers at the Paris
opera have all been bought off with promises of specific arrangements for their
pension scheme and retirement age, but the determination to put an end to the
remaining retirement privileges of many public transport workers and public sector
workers in general remains intact. With
some further face-saving concessions in the negotiations scheduled for early
January, the government is still likely to have a points-based system for pensions
adopted by parliament in 2020 and ensure that when it is finally introduced in
2025, for everyone except those entering the workforce before then, the deficit
of between 8 and 17 billion Euros predicted by the official pensions watchdog will
have been reduced to zero.
All this
being said, the political price that Emmanuel Macron will ultimately have to
pay for his probable victory remains uncertain. It was interesting to see for
instance that for the first time last Saturday, a street demonstration saw
members of the CGT and a large number “gilets
jaunes” marching side by side. Does this mean that they have found common
ground, and will this show of unity lead to anything? Somehow I doubt it, given
that for the moment the only factor that unites them is their intense dislike
of the President and their distaste for his reforms. The next big national test will come with the country-wide
municipal elections next March. Macron’s party, la République en marche has invested heavily to prepare them, by selecting
or supporting candidates for all of France’s major cities and most
towns. The “gilets jaunes” for their part, have not
moved on much from their stance as a protest movement and the unions traditionally
play a very minor role in such elections anyway.
As we strike the
old year out and ring the new one in, the only certainty is that 2020 will
be another eventful year for France!
Wishing all
my readers a very Happy New Year!
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